verging_on_random

Deconstructing al Qaeda

July 12, 2007 on 4:44 pm | In Uncategorized |

One day, if it’s not too much trouble and they can find the time, I wonder if someone from the Bush Administration can explain to us just how al Qaeda operates. I mean I have a lay knowledge of history and I teach organisational behaviour yet I really, really have trouble comprehending what this al Qaeda thing is of which we read so often.

Take this story from Reuters as an example. It repeats the well-worn line about al Qaeda wanting civil war in Iraq:

U.S. officials blame al Qaeda for most of the major car bombings in Iraq, saying the group is trying to spark all-out civil war between majority Shi’tes and minority Sunni Arabs.

We’ve been reading stuff like that for at least 18 months so you’d reckon al Qaeda might have turned to another strategy by now, if that is really their objective. But it’s a good line so it just keeps being trotted out.

Then we have the attempts to simultaneously inflate and downplay the role and effectiveness of al Qaeda. On the one hand:

Brigadier-General Kevin Bergner said 26 leaders of al Qaeda in Iraq had been killed or captured in operations in May and June across the country.

Well that seems pretty worrying – especially when they presumably let all the ‘followers’ escape when they got the leaders. The brigadier didn’t suggest that this had delivered a body blow to al Qaeda – on the contrary, he ‘expects al Qaeda in Iraq to strike back with “spectacular attacks” after major U.S.-led offensives that have disrupted its activities’ – so the 26 leaders seem to be the tip of the proverbial iceberg.

But then again:

“Their numbers are relatively small (in Iraq), but their effect is very, very devastating to the Iraqi people because they are employed frequently as these suicide bombers.”

So they can strike spectacularly even after losing 26 leaders but then again they’re relatively small. Maybe the confusion arises from the use of expressions like ‘relatively’ … relative to what? The 300,000 plus US troops and contractors in the country? How about providing some actual numbers? Unless the truth is that they have no idea … meaning that if they ‘win’ in Iraq it will be in spite of the absence of good intelligence and not because of it.

What kind of organisation is al Qaeda anyway? Does it use the cell system perfected by the commie spy networks? Is it a bureaucracy where everything has to be submitted to Osama for approval? Is there a quasi-military command structure or have they mastered modern technology to become a virtual organisation of autonomous teams?

Bergner was pressed to explain the link between al Qaeda in Iraq and the global network led by Osama bin Laden, given the U.S. military’s increasing focus on al Qaeda in Iraq as the biggest threat to the country.

“Al Qaeda senior leadership does provide direction to al Qaeda in Iraq,” Bergner said.

I seeeee … they ‘provide direction’ eh? That covers a multitude of possibilities … everything from sending “Keep fighting the infidel!!” emails to providing detailed daily operational orders. But if the intrepid reporters ‘pressed’ the brigadier to be more forthcoming they didn’t tell us the outcome.

In any event, under the strictly America-centric perspective of Iraq that dominates the English language media, al Qaeda is little more than a PR firm that uses rougher tactics than most. Because as always, events in the Middle East can only be understood as attempts to send messages across the sea:

Some U.S. military officials have said they expect militants to strike hard in the next two months before a much-anticipated report on Iraq goes to the U.S. Congress in mid-September.

Yep, the violence in Iraq would have been over years ago if it wasn’t for the need to keep influencing opinion in the USA.

Fortunately it will all be over soon. Senator Joe Lieberman, having assured us at regular intervals since 2003 that things are looking up, has finally changed his tune. Now, things aren’t just looking up but the USA is winning. Better than winning:

The enemy is on the run in Iraq.

That explains the two million plus refugees … they’re al Qaeda followers retreating from Baghdad, totally demoralised by the continuing loss of their leaders and their failure to start a civil war.